Latest Polling In Missouri Senate Race Shows Lucas Kunce Is Only Candidate With A Path To Defeat Eric Greitens, Who Is Now Backed By Donald Trump Jr.
The latest data in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race confirms that Democrat and 13-year Marine veteran Lucas Kunce is the only candidate who can defeat Republican Eric Greitens in this election.
Independent polling shows Kunce, the race’s top fundraiser, tied for the November general election with Greitens, who is now endorsed by Donald Trump Jr.
Another new poll shows Greitens, the disgraced former governor and Navy SEAL, defeating billionaire heiress Trudy Busch Valentine by 9% — well outside of the poll’s margin of error.
And another poll gives Lucas Kunce a strong lead for the August 2nd Democratic primary.
In the following memo, we’ll break down the data that shows how Lucas Kunce’s story and vision are making him the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, who has a real and clear path to defeating Eric Greitens in 2022.
In GOP Primary, Greitens is the Trump-world pick
For a year, Eric Greitens has consistently been the undeniable frontrunner for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Missouri. Since he launched, every public poll has had him either in the lead against other major GOP candidates or virtually tied within the margin of error.
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And despite efforts by Mitch McConnell and a group of GOP elites to steer Trump support toward one of Greitens’ establishment Republican opponents, Eric Greitens now enjoys active support from Donald Trump Jr., senior Trump advisor Kimberly Guilfoyle (who now chairs the campaign), Steve Bannon, and a cadre of other Trump-world elites and media outlets.
That coalition has resulted in primary victories for other GOP primary candidates across the country, like J.D. Vance’s recent victory in Ohio — and each of Greitens’ establishment Republican opponents has failed to earn that coalition’s support.
Eric Greitens is on his way to securing the GOP nomination in this race.
Kunce’s groundbreaking campaign puts him ahead
Despite now facing a primary opponent with a famous name, polling shows Lucas Kunce holds an early commanding lead — especially after voters hear more information about the candidates. He also earns more support among Black voters and women voters — two critical demographics in Missouri’s Democratic primary.
And that’s not surprising — here’s why.
Like many Missourians, Lucas grew up in a family that lived paycheck to paycheck. When his littlest sister was born with a heart condition, his family went bankrupt from medical bills. He didn’t grow up in a wealthy and well-connected family. But with a unique message and a compelling track record of service to his country, the 13-year Marine veteran has put this race on the map:
- Lucas Kunce has built a record-breaking grassroots army that’s helped him outraise every Republican and Democrat in this U.S. Senate field quarter after quarter, with support from every single Missouri county and 98% of donations under $200.
- Lucas Kunce has developed a powerful, worker-first message that’s laser-focused on empowering Missourians and defeating the global corporate elites and criminal politicians who’ve been waging economic warfare on Missouri families here at home. He’s running to be a warrior in the U.S. Senate who fights for Missouri workers, farmers, and families — and that message has earned praise from every corner of American politics.
- Lucas Kunce’s unique message, upbringing, record of service, and willingness to campaign anywhere and everywhere have earned him features in Politico Magazine, The American Conservative, The American Prospect, Missouri Independent, Business Insider, National Journal, MSNBC, Peacock, and Fox News. He’s also the only Democratic candidate actively campaigning throughout Missouri, building in-person events like town halls and forums, and engaging with and supporting members of Missouri organized labor.
- Lucas Kunce has built a powerful movement, gaining support and endorsements from VoteVets, the League of Conservation Voters, Mayor Ella Jones (Ferguson’s first Black woman mayor), Reps. Rasheen Aldridge and Michael Johnson, former Springfield Mayor Jim O’Neil, and many more local leaders and coalitions who all agree he is Missouri’s best and only chance to defeat Eric Greitens in November.
Lucas Kunce is the only candidate for U.S. Senate who’s built a real campaign capable of defeating Eric Greitens in November. Let’s next look at the numbers that prove it.
Kunce tied with Greitens, Busch Valentine losing big
The most recent independent polling from Remington Research and The Trafalgar Group has made two facts clear:
- A famous name is not enough to defeat Eric Greitens in November.
- 13-year Marine veteran Lucas Kunce has what it takes to win.
In the general election, polling shows Lucas Kunce’s opponent in the Democratic primary would lose to Greitens by 9 points — well outside the poll’s margin of error.
Meanwhile, polling has Lucas Kunce at 45.1% to Eric Greitens at 46% — a virtual tie confirming they’re in a dead heat, while also showing Lucas with a higher percentage of support against all other potential GOP opponents compared to his primary opponent. This follows previous polling that already had GOP insiders openly worrying about Lucas Kunce’s ability to flip this seat.
An important consideration is the timeline of these polls. Lucas Kunce is tied with Greitens even before the ex-Governor’s latest episode of scandals, while his primary opponents’ projected defeat was found after these developments.
Conclusion: Lucas Kunce is Missouri’s best and only chance to defeat Eric Greitens
In Missouri, Democratic candidates have often already enjoyed advantages over Republicans in cash and TV spending, despite facing an onslaught of mega-donor attack ads. But money alone hasn’t bought victories, and it won’t buy a victory against Eric Greitens. Jason Kander’s near-win over Roy Blunt in 2016 and Democratic Auditor Nicole Galloway’s statewide victory in 2018 both show that both an effective messenger and message are required.
That’s why the latest news and data out of Missouri confirm Lucas Kunce is the candidate best positioned in either party to defeat Eric Greitens in 2022.
- Lucas Kunce is Tied with Greitens, Leading the Primary
Polling shows Lucas Kunce in a dead heat with Eric Greitens, while his chief primary opponent loses by 9 points — outside the margin of error. Lucas Kunce also has a commanding lead in the primary. - A Record-Breaking, Statewide, Grassroots Coalition Backs Lucas Kunce
Lucas Kunce has outraised each of his opponents, earning grassroots support from everywhere in Missouri. He’s also built a coalition of support from across Missouri, putting in the work to be a champion for veterans, farmers, women, Black Missourians, small business owners, and local communities that have been ripped apart by billionaire oligarchs and corporate politicians. He’ll have the resources and support he needs to turn voters out and compete on the air with Eric Greitens. - Lucas Kunce Has A Winning Message
Lucas Kunce’s message has been called a “model” for Democrats to win in states like Missouri — exciting working-class voters, turning out the base, and winning over Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. His background — growing up in a working-class neighborhood, defending his country in the Marines Corps, and fighting back against corrupt corporations — makes him uniquely qualified to deliver that message.
Missouri has seen decades of economic warfare waged by criminal politicians and giant corporations against the real, everyday people of this state. Eric Greitens is a criminal with support from the same billionaire oligarchs and foreign corporations who’ve been destroying our state. Missourians need a leader who is one of them, understands them, fights for them, and can win for them.
The data confirms that 13-year Marine veteran Lucas Kunce is the warrior for working people that Missouri needs to defeat Eric Greitens in 2022.
